以用户为导向的交互式预报系统及应用研究     

韩佳芮  严中伟  矫梅燕  叶谦  赵琳娜 《气象》2011,37(6):649-658

基于近年来涌现的有关新一代气象预报系统发展的认识,本文提出用户导向的交互式预报系统的概念模型。新系统强调在用户信息分析的基础上,发展从用户出发再回到用户不断自我改善的预报流程。系统组成的关键模块包括：用户端风险决策动态需求分析模块、物理预测模块、用户目标量的降尺度模块,用户端专业耦合模块及用户风险决策模块。文中阐述了系统中各模块间的联系、用户端信息在系统中的反馈作用以及具体的“交互式”方式。以临沂地区水文用户为例,以引发洪涝的降水事件为预报对象,利用TIGGE全球超集合预报,初步构建了一个临沂水文用户导向的可能致洪降水交互式预报系统。这个具备迭代式自我完善功能的新型预报系统包含了汛期随时变化的用户决策信息、由前期影响雨量和当前水文条件决定的可变致洪降水阈值以及一个动态的用户端预报水平和不确定性评估模块。初步结果表明,结合用户端信息的预报优于未考虑用户信息的预报结果,从而更直接地帮助用户进行防汛决策。个例研究也为发展更完整的用户导向预报系统提供了参考。  相似文献   

尼泊尔Ms8.1地震构造背景及对周边地区地震活动趋势的影响     

雷东宁  蔡永建  李恒  吴建超  乔岳强  余松  廉超 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(5):738-741

分析印度板块与欧亚板块俯冲带、尼泊尔Ms8.1地震震中区地震构造及地震发震构造,讨论主震对余震触发及余震的时空强特征和地震对周边地区地震活动趋势的影响。初步分析认为,主边界断裂为本次地震的发震构造,属于低角度逆冲断层地震;余震分布范围与震源破裂面积和方式基本一致,具有向东迁移的时空特征;西藏定日Ms5.9、聂拉木Ms5.3地震不属于尼泊尔地震余震,是应力扰动的结果;沿俯冲带向东至喜马拉雅东构造结是大震发生的危险地段。  相似文献   

基于Global Mapper的地貌晕渲图设计与制作     

郑洪彬  洪倩倩  林占云 《测绘与空间地理信息》2015,(8):180-182

地貌晕渲图是指利用数字高程模型（ DEM）来生成,可以很好地反映地形、地势的变化,具有较好立体感的地图。本文以地貌晕渲基本理论为出发点,利用Global Mapper软件实现对制图数据的地貌晕渲图自动生成。对制图区域内的地形地势特征,地貌晕渲图在计算机上实现的关键技术,整体性考虑对地貌晕渲图效果的影响,合理分析设置Global Mapper软件中的各类参数,并利用Photoshop软件对地貌晕渲图进行调整。  相似文献   

常州润华环球中心深基坑支护效果分析          下载免费PDF全文

宋珪  张海丰 《探矿工程》2015,42(12):44-47

常州润华环球中心基坑工程一区开挖深度达18 m,采用钻孔灌注排桩和内支撑作为支护结构。基坑施工过程中对基坑顶部的沉降位移和水平位移进行了监测。基坑工程施工结束后基坑顶部的沉降位移和水平位移达到稳定值（分别为25 mm和40 mm）,整体支护效果显著。但在基坑第三次开挖结束后第二道支撑构筑完成之前,基坑顶部的沉降位移和水平位移速率突然增大,直至第二道支撑构筑完成后增速才缓慢降低。提高第二道支撑的标高有利于降低基坑的变形,提高支护效果。  相似文献   

Triggered seismicity in the Andean arc region via static stress variation by the MW = 8.8, February 27, 2010, Maule earthquake     

《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2015

We localized crustal earthquakes in the Andean arc, between 35°S and 36°S, from December 2009 to May 2010. This research shows a seismicity increase, in a narrow longitudinal area, of more than nine times after the great M_w 8.8 Maule earthquake.The localized seismicity defines an area of ∼80 km long and ∼18 km wide and NNW to NNE trend. The M_d magnitudes varied from 0.7 to 3.1 except for two earthquakes with M_w of 3.9 and 4.5, located in the northern end of the area. The focal mechanisms for these two last events were normal/strike-slip and strike-slip respectively.During 2011, a network of 13 temporary stations was installed in the trasarc region in Malargüe, Argentina. Sixty earthquakes were localized in the study region during an 8 month period.We explored how changes in Coulomb conditions associated with the mega-thrust earthquake triggered subsequent upper-plate events in the arc region. We assumed the major proposed structures as receiver faults and used previously published earthquake source parameters and slip distribution for the Maule quake. The largest contribution to static stress change, up to 5 bars, derives from unclamping resulting consistent with co-seismic dilatational deformation inferred from GPS observations in the region and subsidence in nearby volcanoes caused by magma migration.Three different Quaternary tectonic settings–extensional, strike-slip and compressional-have been proposed for the arc region at these latitudes. We found that the unclamping produced by the Maule quake could temporarily change the local regime to normal/strike-slip, or at least it would favor the activation of Quaternary NNE to N-trending dextral strike-slip faults with dextral transtensional movement.  相似文献   

遥感的科学推动作用与重点应用领域   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wu Bingfang  Xing Qiang 《地球科学进展》2015,30(7):751-762

在调研国内外遥感案例的基础上,论述了遥感在推动地球系统科学发展方面的作用,及在我国的重点应用领域。遥感催生了全球变化研究,使得人类得以从新的视角来探索地球上的生命未来;遥感推动了地球科学从定性到定量、从描述到分析、从单站点到多时空尺度的变革,诸多新兴交叉学科应运而生。遥感是应用驱动的,一致性及可对比性是定量遥感的核心,也是遥感深化应用的基础。遥感应用于众多领域,但不同的国家基于各自的国情有不同的侧重点,其中,维护国家全球利益、灾害快速响应与灾后评估、第三方独立监督、保障国防安全是我国的应用重点。  相似文献   

Designing geotechnical structures with a proper stability criterion as a safety factor     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2016

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Hydraulic modeling of flood pulses in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), UNESCO Cilento Global Geopark,southern Italy          下载免费PDF全文

Vittorio Bovolin  Albina Cuomo  Domenico Guida 《水文研究》2017,31(3):639-653

Karst systems provide water for domestic and industrial uses and for generating hydropower, but they can also create fluvial hazards, such as upstream back‐flooding and downstream karst flash‐flood events. However, these hazards are difficult to foresee due to the complex recharge‐discharge processes as well as the lack of information on the inside of the system, which has often not been completely surveyed by speleologists or explored by boreholes. To overcome these difficulties, hydro‐chemical data from the monitoring system in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), one of the first Experimental Karst Systems in southern Italy, were recorded and previously discussed. Based on shared background in flood karst hydraulic modeling, this paper describes the conceptual premises and rationale of a general‐purpose hydraulic model that is suitable both for the MBSKS and for other Mediterranean, multi‐recharge, mature, conduit‐dominated karst systems. To test the reliability of the model, simulations of time–space behavior and response are performed using natural and artificial flood pulses “as tracers”, considering a “pulse” as a significant variation in water quantity and/or quality. The results of the model explain the interactions between allogenic, autogenic, and anthropogenic recharges from differentiated sources and phreatic conduit systems. These results also clarify the overall response of karst springs at typical time scales of flood pulses. Table acronym name  相似文献   

The role of Quality of Place factors in expatriate international relocation decisions: A case study of Suzhou,a globally-focused Chinese city     

《Geoforum》2017

The role of ‘quality of place’ (QoP) in attracting and retaining workers has been a significant concern of urban related policy makers and research communities over the past decade. This paper aims to address the significance of QoP factors in attracting and/or retaining global talent by presenting the findings and implications of a study into the relocation decisions of expatriate workers in Suzhou, China. Findings from a survey questionnaire indicate that global talent moving to Suzhou have been driven primarily by career-related opportunities instead of QoP factors. However, binary logit analysis shows that QoP factors have contributed positively towards the retention of global talent in the city.  相似文献   

Knowledge integration in sustainability governance through science-based actor networks     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Understanding how science, technology and innovation can best help to accelerate progress in achieving sustainable development remains a grand challenge for researchers and practitioners. In the context of the global consultation process for preparing a post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, various science-based actor networks have emerged, aiming to translate research into political decision-making and to inform transformations towards sustainability. Over the last years, these networks seem to have taken an ever-growing role in structuring the science-policy interface in global sustainability governance. The question arises, however, how they understand and organize ‘scientific knowledge integration’ in sustainability politics.This study offers a structured comparison of twelve global science-based actor networks engaged in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. It shows that these networks use two types of strategies to foster scientific knowledge integration in sustainability governance. A new framework emerges, in which each strategy corresponds to two main approaches of scientific knowledge integration: The entrepreneurial strategy generally seeks to advance advice-oriented and solution-oriented knowledge processes, while assessment-oriented and learning-oriented processes in scientific knowledge integration are mainly promoted through a mediating strategy.  相似文献